How Auspicious is ?Auspicious??

By N Sathiya Moorthy

If you are reminded of one or two or both the past events when you read about Election Commission chairman R M A L Ratnayake?s announcement of consulting an astrologically auspicious time for releasing the presidential poll schedule, you may not be the only one. The EC chief said that when politicians in the country consulted astrologers for good tidings, why not the poll panel, too.

The implication was simple and straight. After all, the EC and its members were striving for the betterment of the nation through this election and others, and why not do it in a way that will ensure as much. If the EC anticipated a disturbed, if not violent run-up to the polls than any time in the past, and could do with astrological blessings, then chairman Ratnayake did not mention it.

Of the two incidents that came to one?s mind in this context, the more recent one occurred around March this year. According to news reports at the time, a group of 42 government astrologers were, possibly for the first time, divided in the appropriate time for ushering in the Sinhala-Buddhist New Year, or ?Avarudu?, which generally falls in mid-April. The coincidence of the Tamil New Year, or ?Puththaandu? falling on the same day, given a day either way, should not be missed, either.

For the uninitiated, unlike the Tamils, Sinhala-Buddhists have fixed hours (and to the last minute) for ushering in the New Year, then one for taking the first bath in the New Year, and then another, maybe a couple of days later, too, for commencing work, including in public and private sector offices where people may be employed.

It applies to students commencing their Three R?s in the New Year. Of course, for this one, the Tamils (read: Hindus) have the ?Vijaya Dasami? day, mostly falling in the Tamil month of ?Purattassi?, coinciding in turn with the English months of September-October.
Up in flames?

According to an AFP report in March, Roshan Chanaka, one of the 42 astrologers in the group put together by the culture ministry, disagreed with most others on the exact time on the birth of the New Year. Going by reports, he had predicted disaster for the nation if his guidance was not followed. The nation could/would ?go up in flames?, otherwise, was said to have been his prediction.

The immediate other question is if the EC wanted only to ensure that the poll schedule was announced outside of the inauspicious time of ?Rahu Kalaya? (or, ?Rahu Kalam? in Tamil). The issue is if they would also consult the astrologer on the choice of the polling day, so as to ensure peace during poll time, and also peace and prosperity for years to come ? or, at least the next five years. If it would mean that whoever is elected President will also get a Parliament that supported him, is another unasked question, or a question that should not be asked.

It is an open secret that in the past, almost every President ? or, Prime Minister, if he was more powerful ? guided the Election Commission in the choice of the polling day, but as advised by his or her personal astrologers. It has been well known that most of the nation?s leaders had their astrologers, and some even had a referral astrologer in neighbouring India, mostly in southern Tamil Nadu or Kerala.

Yet, there is no denying the fact that incumbent Mahinda Rajapaksa lost Elections-2015, despite reportedly choosing the poll-date in consultation with his personal astrologer, Sumanadasa Abeygunawardena. The fact also remained that the astrologer got himself admitted to a hospital, complaining of chest pain, less than a week before the polling date, reportedly fixed by him as 8 January 2015.

The social media had just begun entering the scene at the time, and both the social media and more so lighter columns in the traditional media, slyly indicated that self-hospitalisation was Sugunadasa?s insurance to stay safe from the long arms of the Rajapaksas, who had begun smelling sure-defeat even weeks earlier. Of course, their calculations were based on Mahinda?s inherent inability to corner 25-30 per cent vote-share each from the Tamil-majority Northern Province and from among the Muslims in the East.
Basil Rajapaksa as the chief poll manager of elder brother Mahinda had a sure-fire way to calculate vote-shares and their impact on the final outcome. So, when in the early complete results, Mahinda did not poll the expected/required vote-shares in these two Provinces, the incumbent conceded the polls ? full 12 hours and more before it became due. By then, he had not only left the official presidential residence, ?Temple Trees? in capital Colombo, but had also reached his family home in the deep South.

And Sugunadasa?s purported prediction on the preferred polling date in 2015 is the second instance of astrological over-kill that should come to the mind of those Sri Lanka watchers, from within the country and outside. It is another matter that his predictions had possibly come true for Mahinda and the Rajapaksas in the two previous presidential polls, respectively in 2005 and 2010.

Ascendancy all the way…

Sugunadasa had reportedly predicted at one time that Mahinda?s fate-line in the horoscope was so strong that no astrologer could predict the specifics of his ascendancy other than saying that it was on the ascent. That what goes up and up would still have to come down was Newton’s law that astrologer Sugunadasa did not believe in, and the Rajapaksas too did not possibly consider as a scientific reality.

The rocket that propelled Mahinda and the Rajapaksas up and up through the previous ten years was the LTTE, and once the LTTE fell, or the Rajapaksas shot down the LTTE, their downfall was also written into it. Or, that was/is one and possibly the only way to look at it?
Having said all this and more, because they seem to have at least peripheral interest and belief in the ancient South Asian ?science? ? some doubt it ? called astrology, they should also consult the almanac, Buddhist and/or Tamil, to know which months of the year (again, not Gregorian) are considered auspicious and which are not.

Accordingly, they should also know that the period from mid-July to mid-November is the ?vas? period for Buddhist monks, not to stir out in the monsoon rains, but stay put in the same place for those four months. In Tamil, it is called ?sadhur masya?, meaning ?four months?. Of course, the religious rule permits the monks (or Hindu sadhus and sanyasis) to observe it either in the first two months or during the second half ? but with certain restrictions on their performing other rituals.

Now that it is past mid-July, the EC should consult astrologers, monks or sadhus on the religious wisdom of announcing the poll schedule during the first half of the ?vas?, and holding it possibly in the second half. According to constitutional provisions, the presidential poll this year has to be held between 16 September and 15 October. Some news reports have claimed that the poll chief reportedly indicated it for 17 September ? though without actually confirming it.

After all, the Constitution also ordains that Buddhism is the State religion. It is also a fact that no official function takes place without religious blessings. It starts with an SHO in the smallest of police stations in the remotest corners of the country, or a school principal in that remote area, taking over office only in the presence of a Buddhist monk ? and also Hindu, Christian and Muslim preachers or priests, if they could help.

Now that you know what all it entails, maybe, the EC too should consider how auspicious is ?auspicious? for them to choose an auspicious time for announcing the poll schedule, and another auspicious day for holding the polls. Ask critics of the incumbent especially, they would tell you that even this EC, like its predecessors, was taking orders from the government leadership, and that the choice of the polling day would be the one preferred by the incumbent ? better still, his personal astrologer, who is hidden in a closet in Temple Trees or in a military camp!

(The writer is a Chennai-based Policy Analyst & Political Commentator. Email: sathiyam54@nsathiyamoorthy.com)