Where from here the Presidential polls??

By N?Sathiya Moorthy

Say, what is unique about the presidential polls, now slated for Saturday, 21 September? This is possibly the first time an incumbent has declared his candidacy formally only after his team had paid the required deposit with the Election Commission (EC).? Ranil did so at what could be construed as his first poll rally, at Galle, not far away from capital Colombo, on Saturday, 27 July.

The surprise does not stop there. More than even Elections-2015, here is the one in which a sitting minister in the very same President?s Cabinet has declared his intention to run and still continues in office ? no questions asked, either by his conscience, his boss or the otherwise over-active media. Maybe, the latter two are convinced that Justice Minister Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe ? no relative of the more famous Rajapaksas ? will at best be a ?nuisance? and will not be considered as a ?serious contender?.

In comparison, top aide Maithripala Sirisena announced his decision to contest and also quit the government at one-go. That he did so after having hoppers with his President and SLFP party boss Mahinda Rajapaksa at the latter?s official residence is what contemporary political lore is made of. Going by media reports of the time, the all-knowing Rajapaksas refused to believe what they had heard and seen, of Sirisena making that announcement.

There were however some around who had known it for over one-and-half years. This is the danger of being at the top too long, insulated or isolated, as you may want to call. After a time, the man or woman at the top gets to hear or see only what is pleasing to their ears, eyes and minds. The truth, they would get to do only after it had unfolded before their very eyes.

One too many?

Of course, the EC has fixed 15 August for all candidates who are making the required cash deposit to submit their nominations. Already, you have known names apart from Ranil and Wijeyadasa. The list should begin with JVP?s Anura Kumara Dissanayake, popularly known by his initials as AKD. His party and its NPP combine announced his ticket first, way back last year that you have forgotten the month and date.

Then there is the SJB Leader of the Opposition, Sajith Premadasa, favoured by some but not despised by many, who announced his candidacy, again months back. It is anybody?s guess if the SJB as a party or the SJB as an alliance formally cleared his nomination ? something like in the case of his incumbent b?te noire, Leader of the UNP parent ? Ranil W.

On the same day as Wijeyadasa, the ?sacked? SJB chairman, Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka, too, announced his candidature in a hurry. He too took to social media. At least in the case of the former, Maithri, ex-President and SLFP faction boss, endorsed him immediately. That is not the case with Fonseka. His case against the party removing from chairmanship and also primary membership is pending in the courts.

The question is if he can contest, even if as an Independent, when he claims to be the chairman of a recognised political party as the SJB? It is not unlikely to open a Pandora?s Box, where Fonseka might end up questioning the authority under which Sajith had proclaimed he the SJB candidate in the first place. You will have to wait and watch…

Of course, has Ranil been selected as the UNP candidate by any party forum, or by any alliance forum, once known as the UNF? It is fine as long as no one challenges his nomination in a court. It is another matter, Wijeyadasa?s status and symbol too may come for a beating as the Maithri faction?s ownership of the SLFP, and the former?s ?nomination? as the ?party general secretary? both came up before a civil court, which banned it both, in the interim at the very least.

Three unequal parts

Then you have what is euphemistically acknowledged as the (real) ?government party? ? the Rajapaksas? SLPP. The party politburo is reportedly meeting on the morning of 29 July, Monday, to decide if they should support Ranil, as sought since through a formal request (as with other expected allies), or field their own candidate (supposedly billionaire-businessman, Dhamika Perera). Both the name of Dhamika and also the man have been doing the rounds for months now.? In a way, it is worse than Ranil?s case, or at least comes equal to it.

The SLPP is a divided house, yes, more divided than when it broke into three unequal parts at the collapse of the Gota presidency during the momentous ?Aragalaya? protests. The mass movement itself has turned out to be a damp squib, one by the people, of the politicos, for the politicos. Nothing changed other than the President and the Prime Minister. A substantial number from the Gota Cabinet too is still there.

The JVP and? the breakaway FSP, which did not at the time had the courage and honesty to own up the organisation that went into making Aragalaya a success, arsenic and otherwise too violent at the same time, spoke about ?systems change? but both have got sucked in by the very same system. Not just the JVP, even the ?radical? FSP is talking about contesting the presidential poll.

The name of Wasantha Mudalige, reportedly 31, one-time student, who continues to be promoted as a ?student leader?, is doing the media rounds as the FSP combine?s presidential candidate. Remember the Maithri-Ranil duo?s 20-A that hiked the age for presidential candidate from 30 to 35, if only to deny Namal Rajapaksa his turn in 2019, which anyway, Uncle Gota, won. It is anybody?s guess why even the traditional media is lethargic and is getting it wrong, as the generally irresponsible and non-accountable social media.

Dual irony

The dual irony is that Ranil who was believed to be the brain behind 19-A as the ?cohabitation Prime Minister? under President Sirisena, is now knocking at the Rajapaksas?s door for the support that he cannot do without. It is another matter that his government has survived thus far only because the Rajapaksas? SLPP has been bail it out, both within Parliament and also outside.

It?s not just about Namal, the 19^th Amendment also ensured that Mahinda R could not contest the presidency for another term, having contested for a third consecutive term through 18-A and losing it. It also ensured that neither of the other two prominent Rajapaksas, namely, Basil and Gota, could not contest as they were very, very reluctant to give up their ?dual citizenship? (of the US), after 19-A made it a disqualification. Basil hurriedly took back his American citizenship too after Aragalaya forced brother Gota out of the presidency.

ut the other one too gave up the American citizenship and retained only the Sri Lankan citizenship almost at the last-minute, and very, very half-heartedly. His doubts and suspicions, especially in matters of having to win the presidency not on his image as a go-getter defence secretary during the successful LTTE war, but on the substantial 40-plus per cent committed voter-base that Mahinda had garnered for himself.

That is what the Rajapaksas, especially MR has seemingly lost post-Aragalaya, or has he? Anti-Rajapaksa media, especially the social media, and also their political opponents are convinced that MR has either lost much of it, or cannot transfer it to a non-family, non-SLPP candidate. However, Team Ranil seems to still believe otherwise, so does the Namal camp within the Rajapaksa party. Hence, the former wants the SLPP to back the incumbent and MR to campaign for such ?vote-transfer?.

Rajapaksa tests

Hence is also why Ranil has sought to contest as an ?Independent?, and not as a UNP candidate, so that Team Ranil could hope to ?convince? a few anti-Rajapaksa parties, including those in the SJB camp, to pledge their backing, too, for their man.? But for the very same reason, Team Namal wants the SLPP to field a candidate of their own ? also to teach Ranil a lesson, for what Namal has publicly said ?for splitting? the SLPP the same way he had split other parties, including his own UNP ? and also the LTTE, of all beings!

To be fair and blunt, there are a few factors that the SLPP and more so the senior Rajapaksas would be considering ? if they have not done so already ? before taking a decision. Even before Ranil seemingly split the SLPP, at least two other factions had walked out on the Rajapaksas. One of them even fielded a presidential candidate against their man, Ranil W, when Parliament voted for the purpose. And ironically, this group split into two later, but both are now backing Sajith for the presidency.

The other one, a mismatch of centre-right Udaya & Co, and centre-Left Wimal W, are yet to decide on their future course. The chances are they too will back Sajith. But of course, they now have a choice, including Wijeyadasa and Fonseka, if they finally pay? up their deposits and file their nominations. Did Ranil or even Sajith or anyone else encourage these splits? The fact is that other MPs too were ready to jump the SLPP ship, and chose the government, as they got insurance cover in the form of cabinet positions and the like.

But the real Rajapaksa test for supporting or opposing Ranil will be these: One, can their candidate win? If not, will their votes help Ranil win? If neither of these is going to happen, then a new President in Ranil?s place can be expected to harass each and every Rajapaksa, including Namal and possibly excluding only the oldest of them all, Chamal, for alleged sins of commissions and omissions that may or may not stand the test of law later on.

Two, if family elders could convince Namal to back Ranil, then the party, or whatever remains of it, can still hope to stay as one until at least another day. If not, the Ranil camp from within could walk out, causing yet another open split. There will also be the question of the Rajapaksa SLPP formally withdrawing support to the government. Team Ranil would then take it to the voters.

Common candidate, but…

This time round, it may not stop with an all-Sinhala ticket. A section of the Tamil polity, with seeming support from Diaspora Tamils, which can be touched and felt, has resolved to field a ?common candidate? to call their own. If one enters the fray, barring equally frivolous independent Tamil candidates, a ?common nominee? might cut into anti-Ranil votes, that too because anti-Ranil is also anti-Rajapaksa. A reverse construct is equally true, but Sajith would be the loser.

The ITAK is not a signatory, at least as yet, to the ?common candidate? pact. Parliamentarians M A Sumanthiran and Sanakyan Rasamanickam have since claimed that ITAK would not back a common Tamil candidate but would choose one of the Sinhala nominees after holding talks with them on the ethnic issue. Sajth seems to be their favourite, but it is anybody?s guess if Sumanthiran and Sanakyan speak for anyone else but themselves and ? more so for the party.

The fact and factor needs to be tested on the ground in the coming days and weeks. Incidentally, Sanakyan was not seen around by Suma’s side during the continuing war of wits and words with the rival ITAK faction under fellow-parliamentarian, Sritharan.

If there is a serious, common Tamil candidate, he will be the first one to do so after the late C G Ponnambalam in the first presidential poll under the new Constitution. The forgotten leader of the All-Ilankai Tamil Congress (AITC) did not expect to win the presidential poll, yes, and he came on the top of the heap only in Jaffna and Batticaloa electoral districts. This time round, even that feat would be a challenge for a ?common Tamil candidate?!

(The writer is a Chennai-based Policy Analyst & Political Commentator. Email: sathiyam54@nsathiyamoorthy.com)