Worst of the pandemic may finally be over

The worst of the pandemic may finally be over, Dr. Chandima Jeewandara, the Director of Allergy Immunology and Cell Biology Unit at Sri Jayewardenepura University said quoting US researchers.

Dr. Chandima Jeewandara tweeted saying based on new modelling results from a consortium of researchers advising the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the worst of the pandemic may finally be over.

The team’s “COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub,” which is co-coordinated by researchers at Penn State, projects that COVID-19 cases will decrease across the United States, barring the emergence of any new variants or major changes in behavior.

“This projected decline in cases could be due to a number of factors, including the availability of vaccines to children ages 5 to 11, which may be available in the next few weeks, and the increasing number of people that are now immune due to either vaccination or natural exposure to the virus,” said Katriona Shea, professor of biology and Alumni Professor in the Biological Sciences at Penn State.

The researchers combined nine different mathematical models from different research groups to project the trajectory of the pandemic over the next six months. They published their results online on Sept. 22.

“Synergizing results from multiple models has been shown to give much more reliable projections than any one model alone,” said Shea, who published a paper early in the pandemic demonstrating a technique for minimizing uncertainty by combining multiple models together to make projections.

The team specifically examined four potential scenarios, including whether childhood vaccine uptake will be high and whether a more infectious new variant will emerge.

“The most likely scenario is that children age 5 to 11 will be approved for vaccination and that no new superspreading variant will emerge,” said Shea. “In this case, by March 2022, COVID-19 infections across the United States could slowly and steadily drop from about 140,000 per day today to about 9,000 per day, and deaths could decline from about 1,500 per day today to fewer than 100 per day.”

These numbers are similar to those that characterized the U.S. in March 2020 when the virus was just starting to spread throughout the country, added Shea. They are also lower than the numbers seen in the U.S. earlier this summer, after the vaccines had been available for several months and before the Delta variant had begun to gain the upper hand.

Shea noted that, at the state level, however, the team’s results suggest significant variation in projected cases.

Vaccine availability to children ages 5 to 11 is also expected to contribute to a drop in COVID-19 cases, with several thousand fewer deaths and tens of thousands of fewer cases across the U.S. And if a new, more transmissible variant appears, the drop could comprise hundreds of thousands of fewer cases and a similar relative decrease in hospitalizations.

Shea noted that by getting vaccinated everyone can play a part in ending the pandemic. (Colombo Gazette)

2 COMMENTS

  1. The rest of the world is way more transparent about the reality of the pandemic and are telling their citizens prepare and learn to live with Covid19 as it will become as common as the regular flu and keep mutating and coming back.

    It is an RNA virus making it near impossible to have a vaccination solution to eliminate it instead we will only be able to manage it with new vaccines periodically as it mutates just like the annual flu shots.

    Better start informing the citizens of the reality of a future that involves living with Covid19 and containment of and spread.

  2. I do not think it is over, because the West has not secured its dominant power. Remember, the Spanish flu during the First World War. When the Five Eyes secured its victory, Spanish flu diapered from the world, but thousands of Americas also died from the pandemic. During the Second World War, the Five Eyes countries did not want to use a biological weapon, because Japan and Germany did not have nuclear weapons. The Five Eyes took advantage of this and dropped two atomic bombs on Japan. Subsequently, Japan and Germany surrendered unconditionally and the Second World War was concluded. However, China has nuclear weapons; now the Five eyes countries have gone back to the drawing board and have chosen the First World War strategy.

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