Largely dry weather has prevailed across the region over the past two weeks; however, a large area of showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Bay of Bengal this weekend and track westward.
The first surge of moisture will bring rain and thunderstorms to Sri Lanka and the southeastern coast of India on Sunday.
Rainfall could spread as far north as Chennai while the heaviest rain is expected across southeastern Tamil Nadu and much of Sri Lanka.
Rain will spread across most of Tamil Nadu and Kerala early next week, which will increase the threat for flash flooding.
Locations at risk for flooding include Chennai, Madurai, Coimbatore and Kochi.
Daily showers and thunderstorms are also expected to continue across Sri Lanka on Monday and Tuesday.
Additional tropical moisture will stream westward across the Bay of Bengal from Wednesday into next weekend.
It is during this time that a tropical cyclone may attempt to develop across the southern Bay of Bengal between the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Sri Lanka.
Regardless of cyclone development, the tropical moisture will continue to fuel rounds of rain and thunderstorms throughout Sri Lanka and southern India from Wednesday into Friday.
Development and track of any potential tropical cyclone will then determine if heavy rainfall continues across Sri Lanka and southern India or if the threat shifts farther north. (Colombo Gazette)